Editor’s Note: The ever-awesome Haggard of Can’t Buy a Basket has been good enough to provide us with a preview of the NBL 2010 Semi-Final series, as the world of Australian basketball gets down to the business end of things. Being overseas myself, I rely on CBAB to get my fill of NBL analysis, humour and recaps. In the future you’ll see more great articles from Haggard here.
NBL Semi Final Previews
With the regular season now complete, half the teams are taking forced holidays. The remaining four teams prepare to knuckle down and focus on winning and being crowned with NBL supremacy for the 2009/10 season.
Gone this season are the sudden death elimination finals which did the league no favors. Elimination finals don’t really decide who the better team is. It’s a game of Chance where a team is hoping they are on and their opponents are off…. But that’s another story. On with the previews.
Perth Wildcats (1st) v Gold Coast Blaze (4th)
This is looking to be quite a battle, the best team of the season pitted against the in-form team of the second half of the season. James Harvey got things started this week by declaring his desire to ‘meet them’ and ‘stick it up their fans’ on Perth’s home court. Why is it that players feel the need to begin the trash talk with the press in the build up to a game in Perth? It didn’t work for Corey ‘Homicide’ Williams last week.
Part of the answer could be that all teams feel or have manufactured a rivalry against the Wildcats. They aren’t playing just any team; they are playing against those dreaded Perth boys. You can’t blame James though for feeling a little cocky. His Blaze won the head to head series 3 games to 1, including an emotional come from behind win and happy dance at Challenge Stadium that got under the skin of the Wildcats players. That dance cost both teams $1500 each.
Gold Coast’s strength is their scoring, they look to outscore their opponent rather than stop them. The Blaze are good at getting second chances as they are second (only to the wooden-spooners Adelaide) in offensive rebounds per game. If their outside game is off they should be looking to Erron Maxey to bang away inside and Craig Bradshaw coming off screens for little jump shots. Where Gold Coast go wrong is on the defensive end of the floor often failing to contain other teams and hold them to respectable numbers. The Blaze rank last in steals, last in blocks and last in defensive rebounds per game.
Perth however will be releasing the terriers on the explosive Blaze back court. Damian Martin, Kevin Lisch and Brad Robbins are all in the top 10 for steals per game. They will look to continue to frustrate, force turnovers and make life hard for the Blaze guards. Perth are good at getting open looks from outside and an in form Luke Schencher has been money with his baby hooks inside. Perth need to focus for the full 80 minutes as they are prone to disappear at stages in the second half.
So who is going to get through? Much like the Blaze, Perth can maintain a fast pace offence and are capable of putting up big numbers, but the Blaze have had the Wildcats’ number. Perth more versatile than the Blaze and can adjust as the series goes on and lastly, the Cats are deeper. Should a game be decided by fouls Perth will win.
It’s the Bloods versus the Crips. Expect the Bloods in three games.
Wollongong Hawks (2nd) v Townsville Crocodiles (3rd)
When Tywain McKee went down with a sketchy back in December everyone wrote them off (me included). But the Hawks managed to keep it together, work as a team and get the job at hand done. Townsville however, run on excitement machine Corey Williams and expect a lot out of him each and every game.
This series is going to be interesting. We have the best team on the road playing against the best team at home. Wollongong only dropped one game at home this season, surprisingly to the bottom of the ladder Adelaide. The Crocs won 6 games on the road, a feat matched only by the New Zealand Breakers.
The Hawks are almost mechanical in their execution, rarely moving from the game plan. From time to time one player stands up and has a huge game, but usually they accomplish things as a team. Offensively they spread the floor well and extend defenses all the way to the three point line. Let’s not forget the big boys inside set some pretty good screens and hit those mid range jumpers.
Although the home court advantage is against the Crocs they know how to win on the road and have the tools to do so. Corey Williams plays well when he is fired up. By fired up I mean play with passion, let the situation affect him. Not this pre-game trash talk that came back to haunt him last week at the Jungle. Corey can’t do it alone though. The rest of the boys need to get involved and not just on the offensive end.
The key matchup of this series is Peter Crawford against Glen Saville? Why, because there is two of each of them and a different one turns up each week. You get the Saville or the Crawford that jogs around the court in a lull or daze and is just not really into the game. They might camp around the three point line looking for a pass to throw up an ill advised shot and then not really commit to defense as they kind of sashay back to the defensive end. And then you get the PC or the Sav-man that runs hard off screens, take the ball to the hole, stays on their man’s toes on defence and can change the context of the game. The series could be decided on which player turns up.
There are so many questions. Can Corey be contained? Will Davidson shave his head? Why does Cam Tragardh actually look like a Hawk? Is Chris Cedar made out of wood? Did coach Gleeson carve Chris himself? Will Chris’ nose grow if he lies?
I think Townsville will win this one. Why? because sometimes the Hawks have nights where they find it really hard to score. They have scored 70 points or less on six occasions this season to the Crocs’ one.
Make sure you check in with Can’t Buy a Basket during the NBL Finals to keep abreast of everything, including some of the best photoshops the NBL has ever seen!
