Team Name: Portland Trail Blazers
Last Year’s Record: 54-28 (Lost West Conf 1st Rnd)
Key Losses: Channing Frye, Sergio Rodriguez
Key Additions: Andre Miller, Dante Cunningham, Juwan Howard, Ime Udoka
1. What significant moves were made during the off-season?
Rip City fans have become accustomed to, almost expectant of, big changes in the off-season. It all started when Kevin Pritchard took over the reigns and continued the partially-commenced job of ridding the team of the “Jail Blazers” moniker. However, as the Zach Randolphs, Ruben Pattersons and the like gradually left the roster, in favour of solid citizens in the mould of Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, there became less and less need to tear apart the roster. It’s now all about massaging it.
A year ago, the key moves revolved around a group of rookies entering the team — a new influx that would change the face even further, after Roy and Aldridge had already named the team their own. Greg Oden and Rudy Fernandez’s arrivals were a year in the making, whilst Jerryd Bayless turned out to be the surprise non-contributor (nailed to the bench) and Nicolas Batum was the birthday present from the friend you never had, becoming an instant starter. James Jones and Jarrett Jack were jettisoned and the remake was almost complete.
Taking that flurry of activity into account, it was understandable that Blazers fans had come to expect massive changes again. The more astute had come to realise however, that less is sometimes more. Massaging is all that is needed sometimes.
So Pritchard attempted to start the Turkish massage with a bit of Hedo Turkoglu oil. Whilst it sounded like the right way to get things ironed out, turns out the Turkish baths had been sold to another bidder — Turkoglu signed with the Toronto Raptors, after basking in the fanfare of a warm Portland welcome. The fans were not happy and begged for another signing, with the common fear that they had missed out on the cream of the free agent crop.
Suddenly all of that RLEC (Raef LaFrentz Expiring Contract) cap space was looking like it would go to waste, in the eyes of money. But the Pritch assured the fans that the right move would come when it was time. The next target on the Blazers’ radar was Utah’s Paul Millsap. The powerful rebounder had become a key reserve for the Jazz and many viewed him as an expensive luxury to be sitting behind the likes of Aldridge, Oden and Joel Przybilla. At the same time though, the baying for blood had intensified and Paul Allen’s chequebook was opened for what the Jazz brass labelled a “toxic offer.”
Perhaps fortunately, the offer fell mute, with the Jazz matching it — needing to secure Millsap with the likelihood that their star power forward Carlos Boozer was about to be headed elsewhere (an eventuality that has still not materialised). The prized purchase of the off-season had still not happened, with the common opinion still existing that the team needed one big piece to become a contender.
Many discussed the Knicks’ David Lee and the Bucks’ Ramon Sessions as the types of players that the team should be targeting next. However there was one man who had been waiting in the wings as a candidate all along. Finally, Andre Miller became that big purchase, as the Blazers inked him to a 3-year deal, in what Pritchard flatteringly called a “plan C” move. Miller gives the Blazers a solid floor general who can get to the basket and best of all, is a prime distributor of the ball. The question does arise as to how he co-exists with Roy in the ball-handling stakes, but those questions will be answered in time.
Meanwhile, the often-maligned, occasionally flashy Sergio Rodriguez was shipped off to Sacramento — as it had become clear that he was not going to be in the Blazers’ long-term plans at the point. Channing Frye, aka “Aldridge Lite” was allowed to walk, signing with the Phoenix Suns. Frye, one of the nicest guys on the team, was not the bruiser that the team was looking for off the bench down low.
The draft brought in forwards Dante Cunningham and Jeff Pendergraph. Both found themselves with contracts, the latter despite the fact that he suffered a left hip impingement that has put him out for 10-12 weeks. Cunningham at 6’8″ and 230, figures to see limited time at both forward positions, but adds depth down the track — not that depth is an issue at this point.
Veteran presence was one thing lacking on this young team and that weakness was addressed to an extent with the addition of Juwan Howard. The former Fab Fiver has been around the league a long time and seen a lot of different situations. If pre-season rotations are anything to go by (and they often are not), Howard may see some significant minutes at times when coach Nate McMillan wants to go with different looks.
An old face from the Portland area has been back on the scene during training camp, as the team brought one-time starting small forward Ime Udoka back into the fold. The Nigerian had been plying his trade in San Antonio as a supposed understudy to Bruce Bowen that didn’t happen. He may or may not make the opening night roster — that will come down to a battle with former Jazz centre Jarron Collins in a contrast of different needs.
2. What are the team’s biggest strengths?
Many of the strengths of this team are obvious. Brandon Roy, their youth, their great culture. Here I’m going to focus on only two of the keys to their success this season.
The Blazers are a great rebounding team. Not just good, great.
They led the league last season in offensive rebounding percentage (.326). Daylight was second and the 76ers were third (.313).
They ranked sixth in the league in defensive rebounding percentage (.750).
During 2007-08 the same could not be said for the team. They ranked 15th and 25th respectively in those categories that season. Conclusion? A big heap of praise for this improvement has to be lumped on the rather large shoulders of Greg Oden. That man-child can rebound the ball like a maniac and his addition to the playing roster put the team over the top in the rebounding stakes. That’s not to say that the rookie was doing all of the work by himself though. Whilst Oden managed 11.6 rebounds per 36 minutes, his tandem partner in the middle, Przybilla pulled down 13.2 per 36min. Aldridge was no slouch either, helping out on the remaining boards to the tune of 7.3 per 36min and 18th in the league in offensive rebounding percentage.
This is a statistic that may be overlooked at times, but that is integral to winning games. More rebounds equals more possessions.
Depth, it can be a blessing and a curse. As curses go though, it’s one that most coaches and GMs would kill to have. It’s one that the Blazers have.
After the signing of Miller, the Blazers have legitimate depth at every position. This brings roster battles which keep guys on their toes and ensure that a competitive team is on court at all times. Coach McMillan has so many options, he doesn’t even know (publicly) who his starting lineup will be as yet.
At the point, do you go with incumbant starter Steve Blake who knows the system, or do you opt for prized signing Miller? At shooting guard, Roy rules the roost, but how many minutes does Fernandez get behind him and is power-packet upstart Bayless afforded any minutes at either guard spot?
In the pivot you have one of the best duos in the league in Oden and Przybilla, plus you have power forwards Aldridge and veteran Howard who can slide across there. The biggest headache, if you can call it that, comes at small forward. Last year’s starter Batum gives you a dynamic defensive presence that can hang with the league’s best, but then you have the return of 2007-08 starter, Martell Webster. Webster can nail the three with the sweetest stroke this side of Ray Allen, but doesn’t offer the same D that the Frenchman does. Of course, you then have to factor in super-sub Travis Outlaw. Trout has become a fixture as offensive punch in the second unit, but has made it known that he would like an increased role on the team. Will there be room for him to develop his game in that crowded three spot, or will he be forced to slide over to the four at times?
No matter what the solutions to these problems are, the positive benefits of this depth far outweigh the trouble involved in addressing it. The Blazers can lead with a top-flight team of Miller, Roy, Batum, Aldridge and Oden or they can go small and swing Aldridge into the pivot, with Outlaw at the four spot. They can put shooters on the floor in the form of Blake, Webster and Fernandez. Put Roy and Webster in the backcourt with Oden, Outlaw and Aldridge up front and suddenly you’ve got a huge lineup that will give teams nightmares. Then if all else fails, change the tempo by injecting Bayless’ explosiveness.
The stuff of video games.
3. What are the team’s biggest weaknesses?
As with many teams on the rise, some of the Blazers’ biggest strengths are also their biggest weaknesses.
Unhappiness with lack of minutes may become an issue as the season wears on. This all comes down to how well coach McMillan can manage his players and their expectations. He has a bevy of fine young players who all want to win, but who will also have one eye on their future careers, whilst the other eye is on the road to the title.
The key areas for concern: Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw.
Fernandez is a world-class shooting guard who can run the break, pass the ball and drill the long bomb. In short, he is the type of player that most teams would love to have starting at the two spot for them. How much he has bought into McMillan’s two-unit philosophy is uncertain, but what is for sure is that he is sitting behind the team’s biggest star and captain. Are there enough minutes in the rotation for the Spaniard to keep him happy? It’s become fairly apparent so far that Rudy does not have the girth to lineup at the small forward spot — and even if he did, there are already three thirsty men waiting for minutes there. When Roy is off the court or lining up at the point, there are minutes available at that time, but are they enough? The arrival of Miller surely means that Roy will play less and less time at the point regardless.
Outlaw is the type of player who can frustrate you one minute and then wow you the next. He can get his shot off against the best of defenders, particularly on the run. The question is, how long is he going to remain in Portland for? This of course assumes that you believe the rumours that constantly float amongst Blazers fans. There is no reason to believe that the Blazers management have any real thoughts of moving Trout, but trade speculation has been rife in the last year or so. Either way, something will have to give at some point in the small forward rotation and one of Outlaw, Webster and Batum will have to lose out on minutes at some point. Outlaw has made it known in the past that he would like to progress to being a star, or at least a starter — this doesn’t have much chance of happening unless the coach finds a way to massage (there’s that word again) the roster to find suitable minutes and touches for him this season.
It may all just be a waiting game, as the team feels itself out and finds its identity. More will become apparent as the season unfolds.
Youth and expectations are the other key weakness this team will need to address. With the potential and upside this team exhibits, comes a corresponding lack of experience. Roy may be an old head on young shoulders — and Oden may look like one (wait for laughter and applause) — but the only true wiley veterans on this squad are Miller, Przybilla and Howard. That leaves a lot of room for youthful mistakes.
Youthful mistakes are fine for teams that are progressing their way out of the lottery, but the Blazers have grown up awfully fast and are now a team with high expectations attached. After moving from a 41-win team to a 54-win team in the space of a year, many are expecting similarly meteoric improvements this season. Should there be any stumbling blocks on that road to success, as there are bound to be at some points of the season, young players may struggle to bridge the gap between expectations and reality. Keeping morale up will be important.
The headroom to the ceiling is not far. The Blazers tied for the best record in their division last season and will be expected to challenge for top of the West this season. The problem is, they will be competing against other improved teams, including the champion Lakers (who have added defensive bulldog Ron Artest), San Antonio Spurs (Richard Jefferson) and Dallas Mavericks (Shawn Marion). Over-react at your peril.
4. What are the goals for this team?
Winning the Northwest Division will be goal numero uno. That means beating out the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz.
The next goal will be ensuring that they get past the first round of the playoffs — something they haven’t achieved since 1999-00.
Getting to the Western Conference Finals should be the goal for this season. Nothing less and probably nothing more. Realistically, getting past the Lakers (and the Spurs) is not something that can be achieved this season, but making it to the WCF will be a fine stepping-stone to a title run in another year’s time.
5. Will Brandon Roy and Andre Miller co-exist in the backcourt?
Both players are ball-handlers. Both are unquestionably talented and can lead teams.
Already the likelihood of conflicts in the backcourt is being discussed. This doesn’t mean that actual, verbal conflicts exist between the two, but rather that the playing style of both players may be hampered.
Pre-season play has seen Miller playing a role largely with the second unit, leaving Blake in his existing starting role. McMillan has presumably done this to trial the lineup, as not having the ball in his hands on offence has detracted from Roy’s game. The team’s star has been noticeably quieter than his normal self in the pre-season and has noted that he needs to be more aggressive as a team leader. This is all part of the “feeling-out” process as the new lineup takes shape.
Will it sort itself out? Of course it will. Miller is a pro and he has played on a multitude of different types of teams. He will find a way to co-exist with Roy, as will Roy do what is best for the team. Leading the team in scoring is part of Roy’s mandate on this squad, but there will be times where he finds that he can save energy by deferring to Miller, allowing the point guard to set up Aldridge and Oden down low and orchestrate other parts of the offence. This in turn will give Roy the opportunity to focus more energy into his defensive game, something he has stated that he’d like to do this season.
Projected Finish: 56-26 (Western Conference Finals exit)
Other Previews:
Bust a Bucket | Rip City Project | Blaze of Love | Trail Post | Blazer’s Edge
Check out more NBA season predictions and get ready to beat the NBA odds this winter.
